Research Paper
"What will learning be like in the future?"
Joelyn K. Foy
University of Phoenix online
EDTC 510 – Foundations of Distance Education and Training
Dr. Rita M. Purcell-Robertson
September 27, 2001 (due Sep 24 to Assignments newsgroup)

Introduction

	From a systems point of view there are two primary driving variables that will bring about a change in education in the future:  cultural change and technological change.  Changes in our culture and development of technology will influence the way education is delivered, and therefore, the way learning is experienced.  Cultural change includes the changing demographics of today's college student, globalization, and changes in the workforce.  Technological change includes the effects of the explosive growth of the internet, the development of asynchronous environments and methods of delivery, as well as, the development of comprehensive learning software.  These two major driving variables, culture and technology, will influence the way education is experienced.  Learning communities and lifelong learning will become the norm in a globally diverse culture driven by sophisticated technological advances; additionally, the line between education and business will fade.  Learning will become our business, as well as, our pleasure.  This paper will particularly focus on how future learning will be influenced in the context of distance education delivery.

Cultural Change

	We are shifting from an industrial society to one based on the creation and distribution of information (Naisbitt, 1982, p xxii).  Naisbitt (1982, p. 7) also states, "We now mass-produce information the way we used to mass-produce cars."  This shift from industrialism to information-rich is also happening at an increasing rate each year.  Knowledge is doubling every seven years (Gladieux & Swail, n.d.).  This increasingly rapid rate of change makes continuous learning not only necessary, but challenging as well.

Characteristics of Today's Learner

	Perhaps the most dramatic change in our culture today is in the characteristics of the average college student.  Today's college student is older in age, and therefore, more mature; s/he has worked or is working while going to school; s/he may also be a parent, while pursuing an education.  Today's college student may be living at home, rather than in a dorm, and s/he may or may not be pursuing a degree per se; many college students today are looking for specific certification to do a specific job.  In addition, Dede (1990) describes learner diversity, which may be best addressed by distance education, in terms of those with unusual learning needs, those needing courses in atypical subjects, those with visual learning styles and those with unusual emotional problems.  Meeting the needs of the future learner will determine in some respects the kinds of distance education delivery systems that are developed in the future.

Globalization

	No longer is the United States a melting pot.  The United States is more of an enclave of culturally diverse pockets representing many nations.  Kanter (1995, p. 173) notes that 

"In a global marketplace, a company's investment in the development of its people -- beyond the immediate performance requirements of their current tasks -- is an investment in its future bottom line."  

Cultural and economic globalization will internationalize the curriculum within educational venues (Gladieux & Swail, n.d.).  This means that distance education delivery must not only be available on a global basis, but that more subjects will be developed for distance education delivery in order to serve a more diverse learner population.

Workforce Changes

	The work path of our parents, that is, to work for one company and retire, is almost completely gone now.  "The average worker will experience six or seven different careers in the course of a lifetime."  In addition, "the shelf life of a technical degree is 5 years" (Gladieux & Swail, n.d.).  This means that people are re-training themselves for new jobs and new skills almost continually.  Kanter (1995, p. 147) explains that

"Workplaces in companies that are world-ready offer a new form of security, employability security.  Companies that fluorish, and thereby provide employability security, replenish their stock of the three C's of concepts, competence, and connections by investing in innovation, education, and collaboration."

These changes in the workforce itself will also drive what kinds of distance education delivery venues will be successful in the future.

Technological Change

	Cell phones, personal digital assistants (PDAs), the internet, cable modems, satellite broadcasts, GIS imaging -- it is impossible to ignore the technological advances happening everyday in our country and throughout the world.  We see these devices on television, even if we are not buying and/or using them.  It is almost impossible to get away from the advancing technology because the rate of change is so rapid.

Explosive Growth of the Internet

	Probably the most dramatic evidence of our rapidly advancing technology is the explosive growth of the internet.  Rosabeth Moss Kanter (2001) cautions, however, that 

"The Web is a great facilitator, enhancer and multiplier, but it is not a substitute for personal relationships.  Being virtual is like having a battery that runs down after awhile if it isn't recharged by being plugged into real people."

Therefore, the use of the internet may contribute greatly to distance education delivery in the future if precautions are taken to build quality programs that include technical support, individualized attention to students, mentoring and sufficient faculty-student exchanges (Gladieux & Swail, 1999, p. 17).  In addition, all students/citizens do not have equal access to the internet (Gladieux & Swail, 1999).  If mechanisms can be provided to make distance education delivery more equitable through the internet, then a more equitable distribution may be accomplished.

Asynchronous Environments and Methods

	Although distance education has had its roots in asynchronous correspondence courses, much of the delivery of distance education in the 20th century has been through synchronous devices (Simonson et al, 2000, p. 199).  However, advances in technology that create environments and methods of delivery which are asynchronous are the promise of the future.  Naisbitt (1982, p. 11) predicted that new information technologies would be applied to old industrial tasks; gradually giving birth to new activities, processes and products.   Deregulation of the telecommunications industry will likely result in the blending of telephone, television cable, internet access, and other electronic consumer services via a single connection (Simonson et al., 2000, p. 199).  Dede (1990) explains, 

"Advances in information technology that would enhance distance learning include collaborative mimetic interfaces, direct manipulation capabilities, telepointers, automatic electronic archiving, hypertext, and specialized software for different types of interaction."

A survey by the Canadian government (Gram et al., 1998) revealed that software companies are rushing to develop internet plug-in software to allow users to play media rich learning applications within internet browsers; developing hybrid CD-ROMs; and developing integrated distributed learning environments which integrate e-mail, synchronous and asynchronous discussion, and other internet applications.  Developing devices which enhance distance education delivery will be an ever-changing and advancing enterprise as future learners gain more and more access to learning environments.

Learning Software

	The simplest form of distance education delivery has always been the correspondence course.  An instructor creates a packet of information that is mailed to the student.  The student studies the packet, satisfies the requirements through some kind of assessment, and the student receives some kind of certification for the learning achieved.  Today the advances in learning software combine synchronous with asynchronous methods and environments to create a total experience that may either enhance the traditional classroom experience and/or completely replace it.  Dede (1990) predicts a new field, technology-mediated interactive learning, which would combine distance learning, cooperative learning, and computer supported cooperative work.  The Instructional Management System (IMS) initiative seeks to create networked content materials for learning.  In the development of this particular software, generic, cross-platform building blocks and protocols are being made available for content creation (www.internet2.edu).  Many new software products are being marketed today (http://www.syllabus.com/syllabusmart/prodguide.asp).  This area of distance education delivery will certainly continue to expand according to the needs of future learners.

Educational Change

	Education as we know it is already changing drastically because of the cultural and technological shifts already discussed.  No longer is it necessary to be in the same place at the same time as an instructor or other classmates.  No longer is it necessary to move great distances to obtain a college degree.  No longer is it even necessarily advantageous to earn advanced degrees unless there are specific employment needs for that training.  It will become more and more important to exhibit the ability to learn new ideas and skills over one's entire lifetime, than to learn one set of skills and hope that will suffice.  In fact, learning will become the business paradigm of tomorrow.
 
Learning Communities

	The shift from a traditional classroom setting to asynchronous environments and methods will facilitate the formation of communities of learner where the learner is the center, rather than the instructor; where learning is the activity, rather than teaching.  Marilyn Ferguson (1980, p. 318) predicted that education would return to "its proper Keepers, the community and the learner."   Gladieux & Swail (n.d.) predict three types of campuses for the learners of the future:  (1) a residential college community; (2)  a global electronic campus; and (3) continuing education and training provided by employers and community organizations.  The trend towards the creation of learning communities is already evident by the proliferation of online discussion groups.  This idea will surely grow as future learners reach for more and more information.

Lifelong Learning

	The shift from a traditional classroom setting to asynchronous environments and methods will also facilitate learning at any age, any time of the day, and from any location.  In addition, workforce changes will necessitate continuous learning and proficiency in new skills.  Ferguson (1980, p. 319) says, "We grow up, whatever our age, whenever we take over the process, when we become conscious learners rather than accidental learners."  Future learners will be more involved in deciding what will be taught because learning will become a pleasurable pastime, as well as, a necessity.

Education as Business

	The traditional classroom setting will give way to privately funded schooling, community schools, and distance education venues that are paid for by class taken.  In fact, businesses in a global economy will be so focused on the entrepreneurial, continuous improvement paradigm that employees will be encouraged to learn new skills and demonstrate proficiency in new skills in order to remain employed and employable.  Two methods by which companies and communities can work together are (1) training and education collaboratives, where several companies join together to offer training, compare best practices and share success stories; and (2) abundant work place learning opportunities (such as lunchtime seminars and work-site speakers) which expose people to new ideas and new fields (Kanter, 1995, pp. 173-174).  The trend towards the blurring of the line between education and business will only enhance the opportunities for distance education in the future.

Summary

	Learning will become a lifelong activity that occurs at home and at work; not restricted by age or place; and facilitated by technology.  Distance education will become the norm, rather than the exception, for the learner of the future.   Continuous learning will also become the means by which careers are assured, and education will become a major business activity.

"Curriculum Software".  [Online].  Available at http://www.syllabus.com/syllabusmart/prodguide.asp.

Dede, C.  (1990).  The evolution of distance learning:  technology-mediated interactive learning.  Journal of Research on Computing in 	Education, 22, pp 247-264.

Ferguson, M.  (1980).  The Aquarian conspiracy.  Los Angeles, CA:  J. P. Tarcher.

Gladieux, L and Swail, W. S. (1999). The virtual university and educational opportunity: issues of equity and access for the next 	generation. Policy perspectives. [Online].  Washington, DC : The College Board. Published on the Web, April 1999.  Available 	at:  http://www.collegeboard.org/policy/html/April.pdf

Gladieux, L. & Swail, W. S.  (n.d.).  The "virtual university"invitational symposium.  Pre-symposium paper.  [Online].  

(Note:  The above reference was linked to www.elearners.com/elearning.html, and I was able to print it from somewhere.  But when I went back to get the full citation, I was unable to find it again.  I was, however, able to find the 1999 reference and use it as well.  From the references at the back, I suspect this symposium was in 1997 or so.  One of those weird things.)

Gram, T., Mark, T., & McGreal, R.  (1998).  A survey of new media development and delivery software for internet-based learning.  	[Online].  Industry Canada, Science Promotion and Academic Affairs Branch.  Available at:  	http://teleeducation.nb.ca/content/media/environment/.

Kanter, R. M.  (1995).  World class:  thriving locally in a global economy.  New York, NY:  Simon & Schuster.

Kanter, R. M.  (2001).  Evolve!  Harvard Business School Press.  Commentary which appeared on Sunday, July 8, 2001, p. E1, Technology 	section, Wichita Falls Times Record News.

"Learningware". [Online].  Available at http://www.internet2.edu/html/learningware.html.

Naisbitt, J.  (1982).  Megatrends.  New York, NY:  Warner Books, Inc.

Simonson, M., Smaldino, S., Albright, M., & Zvacek, S..  (2000).  Teaching & learning at a distance:  foundations of distance education.  	Upper Saddle River, NJ:  Prentice-Hall, Inc.